John Kerry’s Warning on Syria

syria map

There have been talks going on in Geneva about the end of the hostile fighting occurring in Syria. In a heated late night phone call to a group of similar minded diplomats, Kerry said that it might already be too late for Syria to remain as one whole country for long. The agreements made to end the hostilities exclude Daesh and al-Quaeda because these two forces are not sovereign groups, but just a group of rampant thugs. The remnants of the Free Syrian Army have had alliances held with al-Quaeda and there is an odd mix going on between the fighters on the ground, each trying to overthrow their enemies.

Russia is also involved in this whole mess and allowed themselves to give humanitarian aid to half of the city in East Aleppo. What needs to happen with current elections coming up is to tone down some of the bombing of the people to not make room for more extremist recruitment tools.

Potential Future of Syria

A newly constructed state would be highly fragile and could follow a couple precedents that have happened in the world. The country could become similar to Afghanistan where the main government has weak control over the areas they have power in while they are engaged in constant insurgency fights in other regions and provinces in Afghanistan.

The idea of a breakup could be in the works but it is difficult to see if this would actually come to fruition. After all it was the breakup in the past century of the Ottoman Empire that spurred all of this dissent and inner tribal warfare in designated borders.

The powers in control or the ones that win this, if that is even possible need to think straight about if they will be able to do something that will not lead to this reemerging in a few years down the line or arising later.

To the east the Kurds have most of the control of the Hasaka province along with other local Arab allies. The Syrian Kurds need help against Daesh and have to worry about the Turkish coming in.  The main regime in power has been conquering the northern and western areas of Latakia, some of the largest urban populations. While in the meantime it still controls the majority of Damascus.

                                                        

Remnants of Daesh

Some of the first places taken over by Daesh were Raqqa and Deir al-Zur which is considered Daesh territory. The Iraqi government is working on taking back Mosul and isolating off Raqqa by denying them supply lines

What needs to occur then and this was Kerry’s main point is reconciliation between the winning powers so that something like this will not arise and they can begin to foster a sense of one full Syria. They can’t go on in this country without devolving into complete sustained chaos over the upcoming decade. The powers in control are already hammering away at the excuse that considers themselves their own nation. It’s up to the victors after the battle has ceased to win the true war.

 

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